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The real reasons why Kerala can't even think of seceding from the union

There is so much of chest beating on how Kerala should secede and how it pays on outsize share of tax money that a counter was mandated.
becomes independent.
It needs to pay for things like border security and a full fledged military. That aside it will have to import key raw materials like coal and food materials, and without a central govt subsidising this, best of luck trying to buy it at international commodity market prices.
In addition to this, things that come under the center now, like railways the national power grid, National highway maintenance all will come under the state.
The bankrupt state of Kerala will become an economic basket case.
Just imagine Kerala outside the union and getting hit with a monsoon season like this...ggwp. Without the centre they will literally drown to their deaths.
This whole idea is stupidly retarded.
Furthermore on the whole "le epic HDI" argument,
It has the highest unemployment rate of all major states. Kerala's unemployment rate is 4x the national rate.
It has next to no manufacturing.
It receives in HDI in 15 years that Chennai and Bangalore (not even the entire state) does in less than a year.
It is quite literally bankrupt. Read this. Commercial taxes have actually taken a nose dive after 2012 which indicates declining economic activity.
It has next to no IT services.
Broadly speaking, it's exports total something like $ 2bn annually, and this is mostly Agri commodities, chemicals / rare Earth minerals. Throw in shipbuilding in case it becomes independent and it will still barely make any forex outside of remittances
Why despite having the first IT sez in the country do they export a fraction of what Delhi, Mumbai, Hyd, Bangalore and Chennai export?
Why despite all that literacy have the consistently voted absolutely shit governments that have driven the state finances into the ground?
This Kerala is some superior state myth needs to die, that's the only way it stands a chance of progressing.
The major edge it had was that it's state literacy rate was 30% when the national average was 12%. That allowed it to export labour and basic white collar jobs to the gulf which coincidentally saw the oil boom and needed said labour and white collar jobs.
As a state it has literally nothing going for it as of now. Even look at the much vaunted HDI data and you will see stagnation as other states rapidly catch up.
In 1980, India had an average score of 0.32 on the index (which falls in the low HDI score) with some states like Bihar or UP falling in the sub 0.25 mark which is the lowest possible score. States like Maha and TN also fell in the low HDI region with scores sub 0.300. Kerala was at the 0.55 score which was in the medium HDI category. The differential was almost 43% between the national avg and Kerala. Similar difference between TN / Maha and Kerala.
In 2007-2008, national avg was at 0.513, Kerala at 0.79. Differential being 36%. Maha and TN at 0.57 and the difference here was down to 28%.
In 2015, Kerala was at 0.71, National avg at 0.60. Differential being 16% or 1/3rd what it was in 1980. Maha & TN at 0.66 so the difference here being 8%.
Even the much reviled (by mellus) Gujarat was at 0.52 in 2008 (differential at 35%) vs in 2015 where the Differential is 15%
At this rate, industrialised states like Maha, TN & Guj will have better HDI than Kerala within this decade. Not just that but a whole host of states like Haryana, HP, Karnataka all will either catch up or leave behind Kerala in the HDI stakes within this decade.
Even the "BIMARU" states are slowly catching up.
The Differential between MP and Kerala in 1990 was something like 70%, in 2005 this was at 55% and in 2015 this is at 33%. .
Why is the rest of India (for the most part) progressing while Kerala is stagnant? Because these states have increasing revenue profiles which means more to spend on the social sector while the gulf remmitances haven't really kept up and are predicted to actually drop, and they even actually dropped a full 11% between 2014 and 16 and is only now inching towards 2013-14 levels. With immigration dropping and the gulf economies slowing down this problem is not going to go away anytime soon.
I think I have made my case pretty black and white. Unless Kerala gets it's act together, it's only going to get worse while India overall moves ahead. Whining about "muh beef Aryan Invasion HDI" is not going to be able to sustain it's economy. Lol, this is a state that imports 70% of it's power from outside the state and whose SEB was (till project UDAY) so bankrupt that it couldn't even pay it's employees and they want to secede? Best of luck with that noise. No power, no jobs, increased spending on defense, everything from coal to refined oil will need to be imported, with no matching exports would mean a ruinous trade deficit
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The hot topic in the town is increased prices of Petrol & Diesel.⛽

Source: here
While I am writing this today,on 9th Sep 2018, a litre of petrol now costs Rs. 80.50 in New Delhi, Rs. 83.39 in Kolkata, Rs. 87.89 in Mumbai, and Rs. 83.66 in Chennai, according to IOC's website. A litre of diesel costs Rs. 72.61 in New Delhi - the highest ever. In Kolkata, diesel is priced at Rs. 75.46/ litre, in Mumbai Rs. 77.09/ litre, and Rs. 76.75/ litre in Chennai.
Some are cursing the Govt. and saying that same people protested against rising prices when they were in opposition and during UPA there was not too much price hike even when crude oil prices increased exponentially.
Correct folks!! but what were the conditions that make both protest two completely different scenario..here we do mistake in checking it.
There are some points which are to be considered before starting this blame game.
Blame no.1: Price hike was not as much by UPA even if the Global Oil prices were rising.
Fact: Manmohan Singh lead UPA Govt. wanted to have lesser impact of rising crude oil prices on common people so they did two things:
(a) Raised almost 1.44 lakh crore rupees in terms Oil bonds to majorly bypass the impact of increasing crude oil prices and to lower the losses of oil companies (b) modest increase of 3-5 Rs in Petrol/Diesel prices.
Even ex PM Manmohan Singh said that they are not doing right thing as someone has to repay the bonds.This is what PM Dr. Manmohan Singh said in his address to the nation on Jun 4, 2008.
"My Fellow Citizens,
I know that the price increases we have had to announce today will not be popular, even though they are only modest. You must remember that the Government is bearing the burden of issuing oil bonds. Our oil companies are making a large sacrifice and are under severe stress.
However, I would like the nation to remember that issuing bonds and loading deficits on oil companies is not a permanent solution to this problem. ***We are only passing on our burden to our children who will have to repay this debt.***Cutting down on the returns of our oil companies will choke a sector vital for the growth of the economy. We need more corrective measures in future on many fronts. In the long term, our country must have a sound strategy for energy security."
Link:
Prime Minister of India - Dr. Manmohan Singh
May be they issued these oil bonds as as burden on the country as they knew that they are not going to pay this enromous amount as they were not going to re-elected being the most corrupted Govt, the country has ever seen.
Same money has been repaid by PM Narendra Modi led NDA Govt along with interest of 70K Crore that too from the foreign reserves of this Govt. During NDA one year central excise collection is almost 2-3 lakh crore so almost an year tax collection has been used for repayment of oil bonds. The strict spending and zero corruption of Modi government enabled this.
link:
Govt repaid over Rs 2 lakh cr on account of oil bonds taken: Pradhan
Blame no.2: Govt. didn't passed benefit of reduced crude oil prices to consumers instead it increased Central Excise & State VAT.
Fact: Crude Oil prices fell considerably after 2014 but Govt. didn't passed this benefit to common people as it wanted to inculcate the habit of financial discipline in economy.
Govt. used additional tax collection from Cebtral Excise wisely to fuel it's Capital intensive projects to Sagarmala (Port), Bharatmala (Roads) and to boost Waterways and Airport connectivity.
Along with this various social-securiy schemes were running be it PMJJY, PMSBY, Ujjwala Yojana (Free LPG connection to poor families) which already marked 5 Cr beneficiary, Ujala (LED distribution) which marked almost 30 Cr LED bulbs (upto 9th September 2018) distributed resulted in savings of 16000 Cr savings and reduced peak load demand, Jan-dhan account for financial inclusion of every household, PM Jan-Aushadi Kendra where one can purchase generic medicine instead of branded high value medicines and last but not the least 'AysushMaan Bharat' which will be milstone in healthcare as it will provide Medi-claim facility up to 5 lakhs for 50 Cr people of poor households.
So ultimately the benefit of reduced crude oil prices passed to the person who is standing in the last line...the real execution of 'Antyodaya Concept' by Pandit Deen dayal Upadhyaya.
Blame no.3: Same people who were protesting earlier for increased oil prices are now in Govt and not saying anything.. hypocrisy??
Fact: When I say that this Govt. is inculcating financial discipline in the ecomomy, there are reasons.
While there is too much investment by the Govt in new Capital intensive and social security schemes along with running old schemes like MANREGA and food security scheme which act as a big subsidy based schemes, India Current Account Deficit (CAD) has decreased instead of increasing. Currently CAD is in the range of 2-3% of GDP during NDA compared to nearly 4-5% of GDP during UPA.
Isn't it a good thing? Here Govt. shown that how to use favorable situations for benefit of the country.
UPA OR NDA: Who's better for the economy? - Times of India
UPA govt were having high deficit, unpaid oil bonds, gulped over 20 Lakh crore rupees in Scams ( Coal Scam was itself around 10 lakh crore) and they doomed the economy, this is how it is different from the protest of opposition at that time.
All things are in India's favour be it inflation, FDI, Forex reserves, GDP as on today except falling Rupee which is due to US-China trade war and Increasing Crude Oil prices, over which Govt should take some serious actions.
Do you want a Govt which gives you subsidies in terms of freebies and at the backdoor it takes away all the benefits in terms of increased financial burden of fiscal deficit and ultimately putting interest burden on Indian govt to repay it ? This is the real question.
Is it your money going to scams like previous one?, NO, it is returning to the society ultimately!!
This Govt is doing what it right for the country and not for appeasing people for vote bank politics. As 2019 will come near people will try their best to defame the good work by false allegations. Don't be a fool, use your rationality, analyse the conditions before accepting the allegations as it is.
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Rupee nears record low

This is an automatic summary, original reduced by 54%.
MUMBAI The rupee fell to near record lows against the dollar on Wednesday, forcing the Reserve Bank of India to intervene to stem further falls on a tough day for Asian currencies.
The rupee fell to as low as 68.67 to the dollar, not far from a record low of 68.85 hit in August 2013 when India was struggling with its worst financial turmoil since the 1991 balance of payment crisis.
This time around the rupee is also responding to a worsening global environment, including uncertainty about low oil prices and continued worries about China's economy.
Traders said they expect the rupee to soon test the record low, with one-month non-deliverable forwards PNDF already trading at 69.
Traders were hoping India's sturdier economic fundamentals than in 2013 and foreign exchange reserves of near a record $355 billion could help reduce some of the concerns, though much would depend on how the Reserve Bank of India responds.
RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan in September said India would be "An island of relative calm in an ocean of turmoil" and has touted the country's lower inflation and higher growth than other economies.
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Why did Modi go to so many places? (FB)

You will not be disappointed after reading this.
  1. Jawahar Lal Nehru – 16 years 286 days
  2. Indira Gandhi – 15 years 91 days
  3. Rajiv Gandhi – 5 years 32 days
  4. Narasimha Rao – 4 years 11 months
  5. Manmohan Singh – 10 years 4 days….. In these total 57 years, these people could not get Achche din”
Pappu wants achche din in just 12 months. Such a Shame Double Standard thinking……
We have elected a prime minister not a magician. (Must Read)…..
Why is Narendra Modi making more foreign visits ???
  1. For the first time after 42 yrs Indian Prime Minister visited Canada not to attend some meeting but as a specific state visit, in a Bilateral deal, India was able convince to Canada to supply Uranium for India’s Nuclear reactors for next 5 years. It will be of great help to Resolve India’s Power problems. . . .
  2. Canada approves visa on arrival for all Indian tourists. . . .
  3. Australia is set to sign a Nuclear Power deal with India to supply around 500 tonnes of Uranium to India……
  4. Satya Nadella (Microsoft), Indra Nooyi (Pepsico), Sheryl Sandberg (Facebook), Jeff Bezos (Amazon), Mark Zuckerberg (Facebook) discusses possible investments……
  5. Israel inks $5 million deal for Joint Educational Research programme……
  6. $20 billion investment from Xi and his Chinese counterparts……
  7. 2 Billion Euros support from France for sustainable development in India……
  8. Airbus to increase outsourcing in India from 400 million euros to 2 billion euros over the next five years……
  9. French National Railways has agreed to co-finance an execution study for a semi- high speed project on upgradation of the Delhi-Chandigarh line to 200 kmph…….
  10. Canada agrees to supply 3,000 metric tonnes of uranium to India from this year to power Indian atomic reactors…….
  11. Japan and India agree to jointly produce mixed rare earth.
And While we are all yearning for a transformation, development, etc. There is someone who is actually setting up the infrastructure for it……
Marketing of ‘Brand India’ has never been so important……
Number of days Modi stayed abroad touring 15 countries as a PM on official trips = 45……
Number of days Rahul stayed abroad (Bangkok) without informing his voters = 57…….
Now read the description below: 1. BJP Govt. convinced Saudi Arabia not to charge “On-Time Delivery 1 Premium charges” on Crude Oil – Young Petroleum Minister Dharmendra Pradhan & External Affairs Minister Sushma Swaraj sealed the deal. Saved the country thousands of crores… . .
  1. India will build 4 Hydroelectric power stations + Dams in Bhutan (India will get lion’s share in Green energy that will be produced in future from these projects) . .
  2. India will build Biggest ever dam of Nepal (China was trying hard to get that) – India will get 83% Green energy produce from that hydro power station for free – in future. . . . .
  3. Increased relationship with Japan and they agreed to invest $ 30 Billion in DMIC (Delhi – Mumbai Investment Corridor)..
  4. Increased strategic relationship with Vietnam and Vietnam has now agreed to give contract of Oil exploration to ONGC-Videsh (UPA was not ready to take this at all because they were worried about China – and getting into a conflict of interests on south China sea)
  5. Increase Oil Imports from Iran, despite the ban by USA. . Iran agreed to sell in Indian Rupees and it saved our Forex, not just for now, but protected India from future currency fluctuations. India also gets to build “Chabahar” port of Iran, encircling Pakistan. Because we well have exclusive access for our Naval ships in this port.
  6. Australia- despite Australia being a major supplier of Coal & Uranium. . . NaMo was able to convince Tony Abbott and now Australia will supply Uranium for our energy production. . .
  7. China leaning President Rajapakse lost elections in Sri Lanka – Remember UPA lost “Hambantota” port development – read latest report of CIA, where they mention RAW has played a major role in power shift of Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka has backed out of Chinese contract and shifted to Indian project managers.
  8. With China, as Trade Deficit was increasing, NaMo forced their hand. Anti-Dumping will come soon so China will invest heavily into India. – China has already committed $ 20 billion Investment in India. That’s nearly ₹140,000 crores.
  9. On Security – I think adding Ajit Doval to his team is the best decision by NaMo. See the recent tie-up with Pentagon, Israel & Japan. . Now see how we stopped the Terror Boat and listen to his words … “Any Mumbai like attack from Pakistan and Pakistan will lose Baluchistan!” That’s the language of deterrence that I want to hear as an Indian. We won’t hit first, but if you do, we surely won’t turn the other cheek…. . . .
  10. India approved the border road in the NorthEast and around India- China border – Remember just because of China’s opposition, the ADB (Asian Development Bank) didn’t give us funds during UPA regime and UPA held that file under “Environment Ministry control – Remember the infamous “JAYANTHI TAX “? No one bothered about the disastrous effect on our armed forces.
  11. India managed to bring back 4,500+ Indians from War zone in Yemen and also brought foreign nationals of 41 different countries, which put India’s name onto the highest platform globally in conducting that rescue mission – PM Narendra Modi specially talked to the new Saudi Arabian king Salman and told him to allow Indian Airforce planes to fly – as Saudi Arabia was attacking on Yemen and Yemen skies was declared NO-FLY Zone: thanks to this we got an assured clear window of a few hours and guys guess who coordinated this? Ajit Doval, Sushama Swaraj and Gen V K Singh. All in person…. When was the last time you ever heard of ministers involved personally in such efforts that didn’t fetch thousands of crores?? Guess the religion of those rescued?? But it isn’t secular.
  12. India’s Air defense was getting weaker by the day, UPA was very happy to let it happen despite repeated specific inputs from the armed forces, NaMo renegotiated Rafale fighter Jets deal with France personally and bought 36 Jets on ASAP basis. At better than rack rates. No middlemen, no commissions…
  13. $35 billion investment by Japan over a period of 5 years and along with it their expertise in making bullet trains……
  14. Till recently we were exclusively buying Nuclear Reactors from Russia or USA and it was much like beggar kind of situation because they were worried about usage of Nuclear reactor for some other use. So only what they opted to give us, we could get. . Now Narendra Modi was able to convince France and now France will make Nuclear reactors with the latest technology in India. On MAKE IN INDIA efforts.. with collaboration with an Indian company as a partner. . .
  15. During 26th Jan. visit of Barack Obama , NaMo convinced USA to drop rule of Nuclear fuel tracking and sorted out Liabilities rules which now open the gates for next
  16. Nuclear power plant projects. . . . Isn’t this good enough to improve the lot of India?
Let’s be sensible to analysis & make a judgment. Specially, for those who questioned about Modi’s foreign trip..
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